Showing posts with label Economix. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economix. Show all posts

Saturday, August 8, 2009

The Funniest questions to economist

The following are the questions posted on "The Financial Times" undercover economist. I swear I have not read anything funny of this sort on the most serious topic which is economics. As we know economist are very serious people because they are usually involved in making money. Anyway, kindly read the Q&A.

Q) I believe that there is an inexplicable shortage of sex. Given that studies show that women and men enjoy it more than most other activities, and given its intrinsically low cost, it appears that even a crude approximation of a utility-maximising person would probably spend much more time having sex than most. Do you know of any economic discussion of this?

A) It is true that there is something puzzling about the lack of sex in the world. Everybody says they enjoy sex, you can do it fairly safely for the price of a condom, and all you need is somebody of the appropriate gender and sexual preference. How difficult can it be?

Economics professor and blogger Tyler Cowen has offered an embarrassment of possible explanations. In the spirit of perfect competition between economic pundits I suggest that you need fewer answers.

We need just two complementary theories, one to explain the all-night-long sex that couples aren’t having as much of as they should; and the other to explain the casual sex that strangers should be having with each other, and aren’t.

For couples, it’s surely a case of diminishing returns. Just because the average utility of sex is high, doesn’t mean that the marginal utility of more sex is also high. I enjoy sex but I am no longer a teenager and, to be blunt, it takes me days to reload. For strangers, the risk of rejection, violence or social condemnation seems very high. In groups where these risks are lower (gay men, students, hippies) my theory predicts that more sex should be going on.

There is a simpler explanation, though: everybody is having constant, guilt-free sex. They just haven’t told the economists.

Q) I recently noted that I only really fancy my girlfriend after I’ve had a few drinks. Is this relationship worth pursuing?

A) I know how you feel: I only fancy chips with mayonnaise. Sadly for my waistline, my relationship with chips has not suffered. You are saying that like chips and mayonnaise, alcohol and your girlfriend are complementary goods. I am not sure this is a problem.

It might be a problem if your predicament were unusual. It is not. Many people have found that alcohol has aphrodisiac qualities.

Of course, it is easy to drink more alcohol than is good for you, but there should be no need for worry. The government advises that the average man should drink no more than three to four “units” of alcohol. Since the typical British couple claims to make love every three days or so, you should be able to lubricate yourself appropriately without putting too much strain on your liver.

It seems to me that there is one cause for concern: your girlfriend must never suspect that you need to don the beer goggles to find her appealing. Drinking is commonplace in our culture, so you shouldn’t find it hard to camouflage the limits of your infatuation. Just don’t do anything stupid, such as discussing it in the pages of a national newspaper.

Q)Why do most of us iron our clothes, when we are untidy in so many other ways?

A)There is an obvious difference between an immaculate shirt and an immaculate sitting room: you get to enjoy the aesthetic benefits of tidying your living space, but not – unless you spend a lot of time in front of the mirror – the aesthetic benefits of your own clothes.

After all, how many of you can honestly say you haven’t sailed through the day, only to discover that you have spinach between your teeth and you forgot to brush your hair? The horror is apparent to everyone but you.

So why do we care more about other people’s enjoyment of our tidiness than our own? It is not a matter of selflessness: we try to make a good visual impression because it will bring us wealth, status and, we hope, a bit of sex, too.

But a second question arises: why are we judged on appearances? It might be intrinsically satisfying to have a well-dressed boyfriend, but there is nothing fundamentally less productive about a scruffy accountant. Evidently, the tie is important because employers believe it is correlated with diligence and talent.

If this is true, we would expect to see the largest premium on snappy dressing in professions where there are few other effective ways to evaluate performance. Estate agents and management consultants are sharply dressed in the absence of more convincing guides to their competence.

In professions where talent is more obvious, this façade is not needed. That is why when I scan the Financial Times office, neatly pressed shirts and blouses are hard to find.

Q) I have just joined a dating website in the hope of finding true love. Friends of mine have started dating someone they met online, only for a “better offer” to arise on the website. If this happens, what should I do?

A)Internet dating allows more offers to be considered, so the tried-and-tested rules of thumb may no longer be appropriate. It might seem natural simply to consider how many offers you must sample until you are likely to meet “Ms Right”. That would be naive. You must instead balance the benefits of choice against the effect your flightiness may have on your targets.

These decisions are much like those faced by a company choosing the optimal number of suppliers. Dealing with more suppliers allows the company to choose the cheapest and best. But having too many makes suppliers insecure and unwilling to invest in the relationship.

Your ideal choice depends on what you want. Fun and frolics are ideally obtained by keeping options open, perhaps even switching to the spot market. But if you want your partner to have your babies, support you while you write your novel or share the cost of buying a home, you will need to reassure her that you do not have other competitors waiting in the wings.

In some industries it is common to sign contracts with two suppliers – enough competition to keep each on its toes, but enough commitment to inspire big investment in the relationship. In your case that would be a wife and a long-term mistress. Perhaps the tried-and-tested rules of thumb work after all.

Q) I am in doubt whether it is worth changing school for my last year of A-levels. I would be living in a much better place (Cambridge, whereas I am now in Dover) and getting more tuition. I am likely to have better accommodation, more freedom and will meet people with diverse interests. But is it worth the risk of not getting into university or getting lower grades on my A-levels? Please help me to solve this dilemma.

A) Let us run through this supposed dilemma again. You are considering a move to a place that appears to be better in every dimension, including the academic one. Yet you are hesitant because of a perceived risk.

I am tempted to suggest you consult a shrink rather than an economist. Fortunately, so-called behavioural economists combine the best qualities of economist and psychologist. And any behavioural economist would quickly diagnose that you are a victim of the “endowment effect”.

The endowment effect is an irrational preference to keep what you have – better the devil you know and all that.

A typical experiment designed to reveal the effect would give participants a small gift for participating in the experiment. Later, the participants would be invited to swap the gift for an alternative. No matter what the original gift was, or what the alternative is, people, irrationally, are reluctant to make the swap.

Your attachment to substandard lodgings and scant tuition in Dover is clearly irrational. Move to Cambridge at once. You may be wrong, of course, but a risk of error is no excuse for inaction.

Q)I am about to be married, and have no doubts about the relationship. But there is one nagging worry: my fiancé co-owns a condo overlooking the Pacific Ocean near San Francisco – with an ex-girlfriend, who lives next door to it. She is not in a position to buy him out of his investment, and although they rent it out, the mortgage is steep. I believe the condo is an investment specific to the former relationship and would like it divested – but the housing market is a shambles.

A) While I sympathise with your problem, I must correct you.

A relationship-specific investment is one that is worth more within a relationship than outside it, such as a set of wedding photos. The condo is not relationship-specific, just unprofitable and illiquid. The condo can therefore be disposed of without destroying value – but not, it seems, by either side buying the other side out.

If your fiancé sold his share to a stranger, he’d sell at a loss. But, in truth, the loss has already happened; his reluctance to sell suggests he’s pig-headed as well as an incompetent investor.

So I recommend that you buy out your fiancé’s share, at a fire-sale price. Subsequent negotiations about the condo would then be between you and the ex. Should your marriage work out, you can share the profits with your fiancé. And if not, at least you will have prearranged some compensation.


Friday, July 24, 2009

Naked truth about stocks for investors!! from India's T20 loss

Hi folks

This is one of my friend's ( Pavan.K) views on the rocky stock market. He took a cue from India's T20 loss and summed it up in an exhaustive way.

Dear All,

SO after INDIA's Twenty20 (T20) World Cup debacle, and a billion fans are crying about it !!! Let us see what we, as investors, can learn from this:

1. Past perfect, future tense

In the T20 format, it is far more difficult to predict than in other longer formats. In the equity markets too, the shorter the time duration, the more difficult it is to predict. Just as how no fund manager knew at 21,000 sensex that the market can come down to 9,000, even those who claimed that they could predict, could never have predicted that from 8,700 market will move up 80 per cent in such a short time.

Lesson:
Don't time the market.
Invest regularly in a disciplined manner .

2. Strategy matters
Mahendra Singh Dhoni in 2007 was playing to win. In the year 2009 he was playing 'not to lose'. This made him very defensive.

Moreover, the top batsman had a limitation, they could not play the rising ball in England. The bowlers were not effective either.

Anil Kumble, Sachin Tendulkar were all available in England. The selection was poor.

Strategic mistakes in investing include
- too many funds
- choosing sectoral funds
- paying income tax on equity funds (by choosing a balance fund with 50% equity)
- not doing a SIP (systematic investment plan)
- investing a debt for a long term
- not taking adequate life insurance, etc.

These strategic mistakes hurt in the long run.

Lesson:
Stick to the investing basics.


3. Never reward mistakes
Most actions are judged on outcomes, not on efforts. When Joginder singh was given the ball to bowl the last over there was no logic, but the result was stunning. So we called Dhoni a strategist. Now selecting Jadeja resulted in a loss. So we call him a failure.

Fund managers who sat on cash from 21,000 to 10,000 looked smart. That was a mistake we lauded. We called their performance as a ‘1st quartile performance’. However, when they sat on cash at 8,700 index waiting for the index to go to 6,500, they lost out. So the same heroes look like zeros!

Lesson:
If you made a mistake, accept it and don't repeat it. It may have worked once but not always.

4. Overconfidence kills
Main causes of India’s failure were overconfidence, too many changes in the team, and playing defensive cricket.

Most retail investors struggle about which fund to keep and which to remove. The very simple thing to do is choose one fund and monitor progress. Also the need to transact is so high for the retail investor, that it hurts.

The same hurt you even while investing. Overconfidence (my techniques of last year will work this year), too many transactions, and keeping all your money in debt funds for 20 years.

Lesson:
Be patient while investing which most of us are averse to !!

5. Sharpen your skills
Even if you are a good tree cutter you need to take time to sharpen the axe. If you do not take time to think, rest, relax the muscles, how will you recover to play again? We over did our playing. What was the reason that we had a jaded team? Not sure. Many mutual funds tend to relax and rest on their past laurels. Look at their recent performance - it is really jaded!

Lesson:
Keep learning


So invest wisely at regular intervals in various asset class.



Thursday, July 23, 2009

Rogers - India Skeptic

Have you heard of Jim Rogers? The guy has who traveled the whole world in motorcycle and made it to the Guinness record. He also wears so many hats, used to be a professor at Columbia Business School, co founder of Quantum Funds along with George Soros. Besides that he made headlines in American television for moving to Asian city. He currently resides in Singapore. The reason behind his movement, he considers the future in Asia rather in America or Europe. So his daughter is learning mandarin to prepare for future.

But he is only betting on china and also published a book called “A Bull in China”, not India he remains skeptical of India’s growth and considers India’s growth will broke up in next 30 to 40 years. Shocked? He has reasons for spotting this trend. He claims India’s bureaucracy is legendary (which everyone knows). India is reluctant to privatize lot of things which badly needs reform. One of things is obviously education when there is a huge chunk of population which is very young. So, He claims reluctance among Indian Governments in reforms will break the sub continent and lose the economic race.

He obviously saying the obvious but he forgot to mention, Indian entrepreneurial talent which no other country in Asia actually has. India business elites are one among the top in the world. Though India has so many bureaucratic problems, it is able to produce 70 – 80 billionaires. Just contemplate if Indian government strenuously work to improve Governance, Indians will see so many millionaires and zero poverty in India. So India can beat the skepticism of Rogers and other likeminded people. Hope, Indian government realizes this faster before it is too late.

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Know the rules of game (gethu.com)

Do you know we are in the midst of deep recession? I hope every soul knows about it but something unnoticeable is happening around the world. If you’re a middle class you may sometimes think how come the number of BMW or Mercedes Benz keeps increasing in this slump? In America, federal government has thrown money at all the banks that are responsible for this worst financial crisis. Other governments around the world also have doled out millions of dollars or yen or euro or so on. But I don’t really perceive whether the current economic crisis has recovered especially the labor market where most want recovery.

In the middle of this economic crisis there were so many controversial issues like AIG bonus, lax regulation, climate change, carbon cap and trade, G8, G20 and all other things. But yesterday, Goldman Sachs, an investment banks reported bumper profit and send shock waves across the world saying that they have set aside $11.5bn for compensation, it seems each employee will receive 400K of 29,400 total employees. That’s an enormous pay package when most ordinary people don’t have money to buy food.

I was discussing with my professor who did his undergraduate at IIT, Madras and post graduate and PH.D degree from George tech, USA about the passion of students on studies. To much of my surprise he said students in his batch hardly studied because they understood where the easy money is available when reached IITs. Of course it is banking and financial services, so more than half the batch prepared for IIM CAT. To make humungous money, don’t study hard, just know the rules of game. Improve your soft skills!

Thursday, July 9, 2009

How poverty is measured?

Alright! if someone ask you to carry out a small project on measuring poverty. How do you do so? I presume most people will go for the average earning per day but in India its different. Have a look at this link you may learn further mathematics http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/09/how-many-indians-are-poor/

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

The pursuit of happyness

I always like to read "Economix" in The New York Times because bring new dimensions to the existing crooked up Economy. One such innovative step is "The Happy Planet Index" produced by New economics foundation was published in http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/06/the-happy-planet-index/.

India scored better than US but still far behind Latin American countries. To know how it is measured, have a look at the column.

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Venture Funds in India

This article is published on "Theviewspaper" http://theviewspaper.net/venture-funds-in-india/

Entrepreneurship flourished in America not just because of the risk taking appetite of people but also due to the guided supply of money. Google is not only founded by Larry Page and Sergey Brin but also made financially viable by Angel Investor Ram Shriram, Kleiner’s John Doerr and Sequoia’s Michael Moritz. Venture Capital funds are the life blood of America’s entrepreneurship. Even the mighty Google has started “Google venture Fund” to provide support for promising startups. We need to understand whether India Inc. really host such ambitious venture funds.


Entrepreneurship in India is a new buzz word because of the limelight on India’s economic success by western media. Indian media too now treats entrepreneurs as new breed of celebrity and often telecast their interviews on the media. India Inc. is usually patriarchal and also entrepreneurs usually hail from this type of family. But the success of business entity such as Infosys, HCL, etc. triggered middle and upper class to foray into the elite league of entrepreneurship. These people are the ones who find it difficult to raise funds since they often lack the good network of business people. The start-ups by these kinds of people need angel investors as well as venture capital funds. The truth is India does not lack number of good venture funds available.


Indian Venture Capital or Private Equity scenario looks green with players such as ICICI Ventures, UTI Ventures, IDFC, Nexus India Capital, etc. But the current problem is the paucity of information and awareness available to the start ups. People are afraid of the hassles associated with approaching these private equity funds too. Most of time, venture capitalist not only fund the company but also acquire greater management control over the firms. For example, Google’s CEO Eric Schmidt was appointed by venture capitalists claiming that Larry and Sergey lacked business acumen to run the business activities. Founders of any start-up company do not like the idea of their company run by someone. They are also afraid of the investors stealing their ideas and starting a company to compete with them.


A quick look into “TATA NEN Hottest start ups” shortlisted companies of 2009 will clearly show the number of companies which receive Venture Capitalist or other Angel investors’ funds. Most of the startup companies receive their funds from family and friends. To start high tech companies we need to have high capital which obviously requires institutions investing in it. Take Singapore for example, it has institutional funds available for starting small and medium business as well as large entities. It has regulatory boards such as Spring Singapore, EDB, etc to oversee the business deals to avoid any malpractice. All these factors make Singapore a viable country to start business in 6 days and also to pull out from business in less than a week.


Currently, Venture Capital Funds are regulated by Securities and Exchange Board of India. The need of hour is a transparent regulatory board appointed by Government of India which oversees the Venture Capital and Angel funds in India. It has to protect the interest of investors as well as founders of start-up companies.


On June 25, 2009 “The Financial Times” carried an article on the increasing oligarchs in Indian democracy. It seems 80% of the total market capitalization in stock market in India is controlled by Billionaires and Millionaires. This will provoke only crony capitalism in India instead of competitive capitalism with many small players too. Big corporate in India instead of killing other business must proactively help start up companies to flourish entrepreneurship. Established firms must start Angel investor networks and invest in the growing or nascent companies.


Usually institutional investments such as Private Equity funds come only at mature stage of the business hence it is difficult for small companies to raise capital in the initial stage. That is the main reason behind why the Government needs to set up institutional funds to help viable and credible firms in the early stage. As former President A.P.J Abdul Kalam remarked “We need youth to be job creators not job seekers”. For those words to convert into actions, we need good breed of Angel Funds and Venture Capital properly regulated by Government of India.